A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
